GasNZ chief executive Jeffrey Clarke says household natural gas users can take heart from the latest gas supply and demand report issued by the Gas Industry Company (GIC) today.

In releasing the report, the GIC said that across all the future scenarios they tested, residential consumers would always have access to natural gas “although some future gas demand is assumed to be met from biogas”.

Clarke says one of the other highlights of the GIC’s supply and demand study was that emissions from natural gas in all the scenarios tested out to 2035 were within or below the Climate Change Commission’s limits necessary for achieving the goal of New Zealand reaching net zero emissions by 2050.

“This shows that natural gas remains vital to New Zealand’s energy mix over the next couple of decades, and that the transition to alternative, low or net-zero carbon gases, can be achieved within the total emission pathway needed to reach the net zero by 2050 timeline.”

In its release, GIC – New Zealand’s gas industry co-regulator – also notes that without further investment in new natural gas supply, there may be more industrial closures and reduced electricity security of supply.

The report indicates that the necessary investment is not just to ensure natural gas supply, Clarke says.

It includes potential investment in liquid natural gas (LNG) infrastructure, and in renewables like biogas and hydrogen.

With regard to biogas alone, the report says that across a range of possible scenarios, production can be assumed to increase over time, with around 0.3 PJ of biogas supplied to the pipeline from all sources in 2030, increasing to between 5 and 15 PJ in 2050.

Currently, the approx. 290,000 homes connected to natural gas in the North Island use just 6.8PJ annually, Clarke says.

We know there’s an estimated 9.5PJ of untapped potential for producing biogas from organic waste in the North Island and 9.1PJ in the South Island, Clarke says.

“With sufficient investment to expedite the development of the renewable gas market in New Zealand, there’s every expectation that all residential natural gas consumption could be replaced by renewable biogas over this timeframe.”

“In total, it’s estimated up to 23.5PJ of biogas could be produced annually across New Zealand –enough to supply a good amount for commercial needs as well.  GasNZ is working with industry to accelerate this development.”

Clarke notes that although the report doesn’t specifically address LPG, it also plays important role in New Zealand’s energy mix – especially for residential consumers and small businesses.

“With approximately 300,000 New Zealand customers, LPG (liquid petroleum gas) is still in plentiful supply, both from domestic production and international imports.”

Over the next decades, it is also expected that traditional LPG will also transition to low-carbon Renewable Liquid Gas, he says.